2025 Chicagoland Small Business Outlook: Cautious Confidence—Continued Growth
New survey data from UIC Business highlights how Chicagoland small businesses are pursuing growth while navigating economic uncertainty.
2025 Chicagoland Small Business Outlook
On December 8, Associate Professor John Lynch presented findings from the 2025 Chicagoland Small Business Outlook Survey to a large audience at the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce (CCC). The report, produced in partnership with the CCC, offers a data-driven snapshot of how small businesses across the region are performing, planning, and adapting as they enter 2026.
Developed and analyzed by the UIC Business Institute for Leadership Excellence and Development (iLEAD), which Lynch directs, the second annual survey collected responses from 148 small businesses representing a wide range of industries, ownership structures, and neighborhoods across the Chicago metropolitan area. The findings offer timely insights into business sentiment, growth strategies, capital needs, and external pressures that shape decision-making.
Shifting Confidence in an Uncertain Economy
Compared with last year’s results, the 2025 survey reveals a noticeable decline in confidence. Just under half of respondents reported optimism that their business would perform the same or better over the next 12 months—a significant drop from the prior year. Confidence in the broader Chicagoland economy also softened, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty at the local, state, and national levels.
What we’re seeing is a shift toward more cautious expectations, both about individual business performance and the broader regional economy.
— John Lynch, associate professor and director of iLEAD, UIC Business
Despite this shift, businesses rated their current performance as slightly stronger than a year ago and generally expect stability rather than decline in the year ahead.
Growth—With Guardrails
Even amid cautious sentiment, growth remains a priority. More than half of respondents indicated plans to pursue a growth-oriented strategy over the next 12 months. Rather than aggressive expansion, businesses are focusing on refining existing products and services and increasing promotion and marketing—the two most commonly cited growth tactics.
Hiring expectations, by contrast, are largely flat. While businesses continue to invest strategically, most anticipate workforce levels will remain steady.
Capital Needs and Financial Pressures
Access to capital continues to shape business planning. Respondents identified grants as their most sought-after funding source, followed closely by lines of credit and traditional loans, signaling a preference for flexible and lower-risk financing options. Marketing emerged as the area where additional capital could have the greatest impact, reinforcing its role as a key driver of resilience and visibility.
External pressures remain top of mind. Taxes and tariffs were rated as having the most negative impact among government-related factors, while economic uncertainty and revenue growth ranked as the leading overall concerns for small business owners.
Connecting Research with the Chicago Business Community
By sharing the survey results directly with CCC members, the December 8 presentation underscored the value of academic–industry collaboration in translating research into practical insight. The partnership between UIC Business and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce continues to provide small business leaders, policymakers, and educators with evidence-based perspectives on the region’s economic landscape.
The research team plans to repeat the survey annually, expanding participation across industries and neighborhoods to track evolving trends and inform future decision-making.
About the Study
The 2025 Chicagoland Small Business Outlook was authored by John W. Lynch, Jihye Han, Yeonghee Kang, Alex Effinger, Yue Wang, and Steve Bob from UIC, in partnership with the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce.
Read the full report.
Interested in learning more?
Contact John Lynch at jwlynch@uic.edu for additional information about the study.