When Supervisors Are Unpredictable, Employees Pay the Price
New research from UIC Business defines capricious supervision—a pattern of unpredictable leadership—and shows how it creates uncertainty, frustration, and strain for employees.
Introduction
Despite countless workplace stories about “flip-flopping” or unpredictable bosses, management research has long lacked a clear definition of erratic leadership behavior.
Research published in Human Relations introduces the concept of capricious supervision—a pattern in which supervisors frequently and unpredictably change decisions, expectations, and how they treat employees.
UIC Business researcher Joseph Kim, assistant professor of management, coauthored the study, which finds that this kind of leadership instability does more than frustrate employees. It creates ongoing uncertainty that can lead to emotional exhaustion, poor sleep, and counterproductive workplace behavior.
The Research Questions
The researchers examined three key questions:
- What does it mean for a supervisor to display a consistently erratic leadership style?
- How does this behavior differ from related leadership constructs such as abusive supervision or justice variability?
- What psychological, physiological, and behavioral consequences does it have for employees?
Rather than focusing on isolated moments of inconsistency, the researchers examined how employees experience a pattern of constantly shifting leadership behavior over time.
Defining Capricious Supervision
The researchers define capricious supervision as a pattern of frequent and unpredictable changes in how supervisors interact with employees.
This instability can appear in several ways:
- Relationship behaviors: warm one day, distant the next
- Instructions: reversing decisions or frequently shifting priorities
- Evaluations: praising work one day and criticizing the same work the next
To measure the concept, the research team developed and validated a nine-item scale across multiple employee samples.
Capricious supervision is also distinct from other leadership constructs, including:
- Abusive supervision
- Justice variability
- Ambivalent leadership
Rather than focusing on hostility or unfairness, the concept identifies instability itself as a defining leadership pattern.
From Uncertainty to Strain
From Uncertainty to Strain
Grounded in the stressor–strain model, the study shows that capricious supervision sets off a chain reaction that leads to employee strain.
Frequent leadership shifts create uncertainty
Employees struggle to predict expectations, priorities, or outcomes.
Uncertainty triggers frustration
Constantly shifting standards disrupt progress and make it difficult to plan or perform effectively.
Uncertainty and frustration lead to strain
Employees experience measurable consequences, including:
- Emotional exhaustion
- Poor sleep quality
- Counterproductive work behavior
Across five employee samples, the researchers found that capricious supervision consistently predicted employee strain—even after accounting for abusive and ambivalent leadership styles.
When unpredictability becomes a leadership style, it doesn’t just frustrate employees—it drains them.
— Joseph Kim, Assistant Professor of Management
Why This Matters
Why This Matters
For organizations, the takeaway is clear: unpredictable leadership is more than an annoyance. It is a measurable workplace stressor with real psychological and behavioral consequences.
By identifying capricious supervision as a distinct leadership pattern, the research offers scholars and practitioners a clearer framework for understanding how unstable leadership behaviors can undermine employee well-being, performance, and organizational culture.
Recognizing these patterns may help organizations better diagnose leadership challenges and encourage more consistent, supportive management practices.
About the Journal
Human Relations is included in the Financial Times Top 50 (FT50) list and holds an A* rating in the ABDC journal rankings, underscoring the study’s scholarly rigor and impact. The journal has an impact factor of 6.1 and an acceptance rate of 3%.